Children currently in primary school are set to work until the age of 75 as the “collapsing” birthrate blows a black hole in public finances, a think tank has warned.
The Centre for Social Justice (CSJ) has released a report claiming the UK is heading towards a “demographic cliff edge”.
The report suggests the state pension age will have to rise dramatically to 75-years-old for those currently aged eight and under as a way of maintaining the current ratio of workers to pensioners.
The CSJ notes the UK’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) sank to a record low of 1.41 in 2024 – far below the 2.1 required to keep the population stable without mass migration.
According to the report, this has exposed a major “birth gap” with over 830,000 turning 50 in 2024, while 600,000 babies were born.
The UK now required an additional 250,000 births every year to stabilise the population, the CSJ says.
“Britain is heading off a demographic cliff edge. When fewer children are born, fewer workers enter the labour force, and the burden of supporting an ageing population falls on a shrinking number of taxpayers,” Edward Davies, research director at the CSJ, said.
“If we try to maintain today’s balance between workers and pensioners, children in school today could be working well into their seventies before they qualify for a state pension.
“This reflects a catastrophic failure to support the next generation of families.”
Warnings for fiscal future
The changing birthrate is set to redraw the economic infrastructure of the UK. In the 1970s there were four workers for every pensioner.
Next year, this is predicted to drop down to 3.5, and is projected to a hit a breaking point of 2:1 in the coming generations.
The report highlights a fiscal future where the Budget watchdog forecasts public debt could soar to 270 per cent of GDP by the 2070s due to the escalating costs of healthcare and pensions for the elderly.
In a bid to curb this, the CSJ has called on the government to move past “baby boomer politics” and introduce pro-natal policies, similar to those seen in France and Hungary. These include tax relief for families, housing priority for young parents and encourage earlier adulthood.
“If we want a sustainable economy and a society that cares properly for the elderly we must start taking family seriously again,” Davies said.
