The UK has agreed a £10bn deal to supply Norway with at least five new warships, in what both governments are hailing as a landmark for defence cooperation, but which analysts say also underscores rising geopolitical tensions and the pressure on NATO allies to increase spending.
Under the agreement, Britain will deliver ‘type 26’ frigates to the Royal Norwegian Navy, with construction taking place at BAE Systems’ shipyards on the River Clyde in Glasgow.
The Ministry of Defence (MoD) described it as the UK’s “biggest ever warship export deal by value”, while Oslo said it would be its largest military procurement to date.
The frigates, designed for anti-submarine warfare, are due to enter service from 2030 and will operate alongside the Royal Navy’s fleet.
Together, the two countries expect to field a combined force of 13 Type 26 ships across northern Europe, a capability British officials said would strengthen NATO’s position in the North Atlantic, an area heavily patrolled by Russian submarines.
A strategic choice
Norwegian prime minister Jonas Gahr Støre said his government’s decision reflected both technical and political considerations.
“Who is our most strategic partner? And who has delivered the best frigates? The answer to both is the United Kingdom”, he said at a press conference.
Keir Starmer called the agreement “a testament to the thousands of people delivering next-generation capabilities for our Armed Forces and our Norwegian partners”.
He added that it would support around 4,000 jobs in Britain, including 2,000 in Scotland, “well into the 2030s”.
British officials have emphasised the industrial upside, saying the contract will benefit more than 400 UK companies, including 103 in Scotland.
But the deal also represents a political win, as Britain beat rival offers from France, Germany and the US, which were vying to secure Norway’s order.
Defence secretary John Healey said the deal “deepens our strategic partnership” and pledged that the two countries’ navies would “train, operate, deter and – if necessary – fight together”.
A costly investment
The announcement comes at a time of heightened security concerns in northern Europe, with Norway sharing a border with Russia and monitoring large swathes of the North Atlantic where Moscow’s nuclear submarines operate.
Analysts noted the size of the investment reflects both Norway’s proximity to Russia and pressure within NATO for members to boost military spending following the invasion of Ukraine.
“Norway’s choice is not just about who can build the best ship – it’s about locking in a partner they see as reliable at a time of great uncertainty”, said Malcolm Chalmers, deputy director-general at the Royal United Services Institute.
“But it is also a huge financial commitment for a relatively small nation, and the risks of delays and spiralling costs are very real”.
BAE’s type 26 design has already been selected by Canada and Australia, giving the UK a degree of credibility in global defence exports.
But the programme has faced criticism in Britain over costs and delivery schedules.
“Large procurement deals like this inevitably carry political and industrial risks”, said Alexandra Evans, a defence analyst at King’s College London.
“The MoD and BAE will be under pressure to prove they can deliver on time and on budget – something the UK has historically struggled with on major naval programmes”.
Wider implications
For Britain, the deal is also about shoring up its defence industry at a time when questions loom over future funding for the Royal Navy.
Shipbuilding on the Clyde has long been politically sensitive in Scotland, where the sector supports thousands of jobs.
For Norway, the decision binds it more closely to Britain’s military supply chain at the expense of continental European partners.
Oslo has said it will guarantee industrial cooperation for Norwegian companies worth the full value of the deal, though details of that arrangement remain to be finalised.
“This is the biggest purchase to date”, Støre said. “We are now entering final contract negotiations”.
While the two governments are presenting the deal as a strategic milestone, some observers see it as part of a broader trend.
“All NATO members are under pressure to rearm, and this agreement fits squarely into that picture”, said Chalmers.
“But whether these frigates genuinely transform NATO’s northern defences, or simply add to already complex procurement pipelines, remains to be seen”.
